Calling Bullshit - The Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World
Chapter 1
- Mantis shrimp deceive other mantis shrimp with their big claws to protect their lair.
- Corvids are smart enough to have a theory of mind - the ability to understand other beings have different mental states than you. This is shown when they are hoarding food.
- Humans use paltering statements, truthful statements to intentionally mislead. For example Bill Clinton's statement, "there is no sexual relations with that woman," is technically true in the present but misleading about the past.
Chapter 5
- Numbers and percentages can be used to mislead and deceive, for example 99.9% caffeine free coffee is determined by amount per serving, not total content. A "99.9% caffeine-free" version may still have 0.1 mg per serving.
Chapter 6
- Observational selection bias helps explain why people selectively recall frustrating experiences (long waits, bad traffic) and forget the times when things went smoothly. The experiences that stand out are the ones that reinforce their belief, even if they are not statistically more common. In reality, buses and traffic follow probabilistic patterns, but our biased observations create the illusion of unfairness.
- Berkson's Paradox - a situation where the conclusion on correlation between two variables from a sample study is found to be against our intuition. This happens when the sample is not representative of the general population, often because it is restricted to a specific subgroup. For example, regular exercise keeps a person active. However, if the study is performed on hospitalised patients, the result can turn out to be counterintuitive. As another example, regular investments in mutual funds provides a positive return. But, if the the study is performed on poorly performing funds, the result might be negative returns. Sample selection needs to be done from a general population instead of a biased population to prevent occurrence of Berkson's paradox.
Chapter 7
- Data can be shoehorned into graphs to misrepresent and sell a narrative.